{"id":1787,"date":"2009-01-06T21:59:45","date_gmt":"2009-01-06T13:59:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/?p=1787"},"modified":"2018-06-26T10:24:22","modified_gmt":"2018-06-26T02:24:22","slug":"where-is-the-dow-jones-heading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/mathematics\/where-is-the-dow-jones-heading-1787","title":{"rendered":"Where is the Dow Jones heading?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Update: <\/b> See the most recent comparison: DJIA-Nikkei comparison Sep 2010<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With all the market volatility at the end of 2008, I needed to update the DJIA models on the page, Dow Jones Industrial Average Model<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I used Excel to draw an exponential curve through the data points for the DJIA, and extrapolated it up to the year 2020.<\/p>\n

The Optimistic View<\/h2>\n

If the growth of the last 40 years continues, the Dow will be at around 40,000 by 2020. This model takes into consideration the crash of 2008.<\/p>\n

\"DJIA<\/a><\/p>\n

The Realistic View<\/h2>\n

I make the case in the article that the Dow may follow Japan's Nikkei. Since the peak of the late 1990s (fueled by rampant speculation on house prices - sound familiar?), the Nikkei has continued to fall, so that it is now down to where it was back in the early 1980s (or about 80% loss of value).<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/a><\/p>\n

Real Life Math<\/h2>\n

Financial literacy is a very important application of math. People get themselves into all sorts of difficulties because they don’t know how mortgages, interest rates and financial markets work.<\/p>\n

A lot of lessons are being learned as the US and UK housing markets unwind, and we face the prospect of massive credit card debt defaults during 2009.<\/p>\n

\nSee the full story over at: Dow Jones Industrial Average Model<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Be the first to comment<\/a> below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here are some possible models for the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). This is an important ‘real-life’ application of math.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[134,127],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1787"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11479,"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787\/revisions\/11479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.intmath.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}